Artelia is supporting the optimisation of hydropower generation and flood management in the Lake Victoria basin through a new technical assignment for the Agence Française de Développement (AFD). The work focuses on strengthening decision support tools used by the Ministry of Water and Environment to manage water releases from Lake Victoria into the White Nile.
The project forms part of the Nile Hydropower Optimization and Flood Management Decision Support System programme. It aims to improve how lake releases are managed in order to balance competing objectives such as hydropower production, flood protection and downstream water management.
Lake Victoria plays a central role in the hydrology and energy systems of East Africa. The lake is shared by Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, while its wider catchment extends into Rwanda and Burundi. Water released from the lake forms the upper reaches of the White Nile and ultimately flows through South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt.
Hydropower development along the Victoria Nile in Uganda relies directly on regulated outflows from the lake. Facilities such as the Nalubaale Hydropower Station, Kiira Hydropower Station and Bujagali Hydropower Station depend on stable and predictable release patterns. As a result, lake level management has direct implications for national electricity generation as well as for downstream hydropower operation.
The Lake Victoria outflow is historically governed by the Agreed Curve principle. This rule links lake releases to a reference natural flow regime intended to mimic the historical behaviour of the lake before the construction of the first hydropower dam at Jinja.
However, changing hydrological conditions, increased rainfall variability and growing exposure of downstream communities to flooding are placing greater pressure on this traditional approach. At the same time, hydropower production remains a critical component of Uganda’s electricity supply, which increases the importance of optimising release strategies.
Decision support for improved system management
The current assignment focuses on improving the analytical basis for decision making through the development of enhanced decision support tools. The work will analyse how different water release strategies from Lake Victoria affect downstream river hydraulics, hydropower generation and flood risk.
A key objective is to strengthen the existing Decision Support System used by Ugandan authorities. The improved system will allow planners and operators to evaluate multiple release management scenarios and assess their impacts across several dimensions.
These include river flow behaviour along the Victoria Nile, electricity generation potential at hydropower plants, and the exposure of downstream populations and infrastructure to flood hazards.
The study also examines the broader socio economic implications of alternative operating strategies, including potential damage from flooding and the economic value of hydropower generation.
Hydrological and hydraulic analysis
A central component of the assignment is the hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the Lake Victoria and Nile system. This work includes the evaluation of lake level behaviour, inflows from the catchment and downstream river hydraulics.
Based on this analysis, a range of release management scenarios will be defined and tested. These scenarios will represent different operational approaches, including strategies that prioritise flood mitigation, hydropower optimisation or balanced multi objective management.
The impacts of these scenarios will then be assessed in terms of downstream flood propagation, hydropower generation potential and socio economic consequences.
Towards improved operational rules
The results of the analysis will support the definition of potential management rules that can be integrated into the national decision support framework. These rules are expected to help operators better balance lake level management with hydropower requirements and downstream risk reduction.
Given the transboundary nature of the Nile system, improved operational strategies at Lake Victoria may also have implications for downstream countries. While the project focuses on Uganda’s management framework, it operates within the wider context of the Nile Basin.
Stakeholder consultations therefore form an important part of the assignment, involving institutional actors and operational stakeholders responsible for water management and hydropower operation.
Capacity building and knowledge transfer
In addition to technical analysis, the project includes capacity building activities for national stakeholders. On site training sessions will support local institutions in using and maintaining the improved decision support system.
Strengthening technical capacity is an important component of long term water resources management in the basin, particularly as climate variability and population growth continue to increase pressure on water infrastructure.
Through the integration of hydrological modelling, flood risk assessment and hydropower analysis, the project aims to support more resilient and informed management of one of Africa’s most important water and energy systems.